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May 17, 2019
Market Update 2019
Volumes are back to long term average levels but slightly down on last year - prices in most brackets holding steady Greetings We are pleased to provide you with our latest update on the Kerikeri property market through the end of April. Please remember you are very welcome to pop in for a coffee and a chat with any of our experienced and friendly team members anytime. Market summary The summer of 2019 followed a similar pattern to previous years, exhibiting the usual seasonal slowdown in sales before and after Xmas. This year it extended longer, until the end of February, echoing the slow start in other markets around New Zealand. Our theory is that concerns about the potential implications of proposed legislation such as the Capital Gains Tax and the fantastic summer weather prevented buyers and sellers from taking the usual action after the holidays. March sales were strong again followed by more average results in April. As a result, Total land and house sales volumes for Kerikeri are down 14% for the year to the end of April compared with the same period in 2018 and have returned to more average levels from the boom levels of 2016 and 2017. Annualized median prices for residential homes have levelled off at $667,000 in recent months after climbing to a record high level of $685,000 in 2018. This is well above the annualized median for New Zealand ($565,000) and Northland ($485,000.) Annualized median prices in April 2019 were 5% higher than April 2018. The middle of the market ($500,000 to $800,000) has performed steadily but activity in the higher price brackets (over $1million) has slowed after a record year in 2018. Lower stock levels of homes under $500,000 have kept sales volumes low although time to sell for these properties is relatively short when they do come on the market. Building appears to be a popular choice again as bare land sales are double the number sold in the same period of 2018. Results by sector Houses The over $1 million housing bracket sales volumes are down by a third on the 2018 volume. There have been 9 sales in 2019 compared with 15 in the same period 2017. Lower demand and higher numbers of competing properties on the market are resulting in longer times to sell and some vendors have reduced their prices to meet the market. The middle and upper middle of the market ($500 - $1,000,000) has been steady with similar overall volumes of sales compared to 2018 (49 compared to 48) and 74% of home sales fell into this price range. The lower end of the housing market (under $500,000) experienced a slower summer, with 10 sales compared with 17 last year, due to a shortage in stock. Demand for property in this price range has increased from first time home buyers and investors as deposit requirements and interest rates have been lowered. Bare Land Residential section sales volumes for 2019 are double that of 2018 at 15 sales compared to 7 during the same period last year. Lifestyle bare land (i.e. land over 1ha) sales volumes are a little slower with 8 sales this year compared with 10 in this time last year. The annualized median price for sections in Kerikeri has reached $248,000 in April 2019 and has risen 15% from April 2018. The median price for sections sold during 2019 is $265,000, indicating that prices are continuing their upward trend. Median prices are still below the national average of $257,000 but above the Northland average of $232,000. Commentary Our outlook is for steady sales through the remainder of 2019 based on continued migration north of retirees from the major centres, strong net migration into New Zealand, growth in primary, retirement and tourism industry sectors creating employment opportunities and stimulus from lower interest rates. Median prices should remain level to slightly increasing if new listings keep up with the steady demand and sections remain in relatively short supply. We believe it is unlikely that we will see the return of significant land price drops as witnessed in 2008 when there was a massive oversupply of sections for sale competing for very few buyers. If the Auckland market remains cool, then some vendors in the higher brackets will likely need to be prepared to reduce their price expectations to compete for fewer buyers, particularly if they have priced ahead of the market when listing. Our team has been busy working on appraisals and focusing on ensuring we have the most expansive choice of properties available on the Kerikeri market for the remainder of 2019 and beyond. (You can view our new listings here) We thank all our customers for their continued support and for consistently making REAL Kerikeri’s number 1 choice for your real estate sales. We are excited about prospects ahead for the rest of 2019 and look forward to the opportunity to serve you whether buying or selling in the future. Want to automatically get our market update in your inbox? Please email info@realkerikeri.co.nz and ask to be added to our mailing list. Source* Statistics sourced from www.reinz.co.nz
Feb 20, 2019
Kerikeri Real Estate Market Update - 2018 In Review
It is our pleasure to bring you a summary of the real estate market for 2018. 2018 was a year of records for Kerikeri real estate. The annualized median price for houses reached a new high of $679,000. Record numbers of $1million plus homes sold during the year. Total sales volumes were reasonably consistent with last year’s figures with 371 sales concluded compared with 393 in 2017. The year finished strongly with total sales volume in the final quarter of 2018 up over 10% on 2017. January 2019 sales volumes are up by 20% on January 2018. The biggest growth in sales volumes was in the $800,000 plus bracket and the largest decline was in bare land sales driven by a shortage of supply of residential sections. Please remember to pop in for a coffee and a chat with any of our experienced and friendly team members anytime. Results by sector Residential section sales volumes for 2018 are 40% lower than 2017 at 29 sales compared to 48 during the same period last year due to limited stock on the market. Lifestyle bare land (i.e. land over 1ha) sales volumes remained at similar level to last year with 32 sales compared with 31 this time last year. The over $1 million housing bracket continued its strong performance with nearly double the 2017 volume. 46 sales in 2018 compared with 24 in the same period 2017. 6 sales in January 2019 over $1million suggest this trend is continuing into this year. The middle of the market ($500 - $800,000) has been steady with lower overall volumes of sales compared to 2017 (164 compared to 180) but a similar percentage of the market for the bracket (44% of all sales were in this bracket). The lower end of the housing market (under $500,000) experienced a slower winter but a resurgence of first time home buyer and investor enquiry in recent months has led to an upswing in sales. Properties that had been sitting on the market for a while have sold and homes under $450,000 are becoming very hard to find. Commentary As previously mentioned the annualized median price for residential homes in the Kerikeri area hit a new high at $679,000 which is well above the new record annualized median for New Zealand of $555,000. The annualized median price for sections in Kerikeri has reached $220,000 and levelled out. The median price for 3000m2 plus lots in the newer subdivisions is close to $275,000. Prices are now reaching levels achieved just prior to the correction in 2008 after the Global Financial Crisis. Kerikeri’s median section price is still below the New Zealand median section price. There are still a few sections available in Alderton Park, Kerikeri below $200,000. It is unlikely that sections will ever be made available at these levels in the future as new sections are likely to be priced closer to the $300,000 mark dictated by development costs. Come and talk to us if you are looking to grab one of these perhaps never to be seen bargain priced sections. We are seeing more local buyers making moves and an increase in buyers from around the country outside of Auckland. Overall 2018 was a very positive year for the Kerikeri real estate market and this trend looks to be continuing in 2019. Now the holiday period is over we are finding more vendors asking for appraisals and there is a good supply of new property to the market to keep purchasers interested. We are excited about prospects ahead for the rest of 2019 and look forward to the opportunity to serve you whether buying or selling in the near future.
Nov 12, 2018
Third Quarter Market Update
Residential and Lifestyle Market Report by the Numbers We are pleased to provide you with our latest quarterly update on the Kerikeri property market. Knowledge is power they say and we appreciate the positive feedback we have received from you, our customers, regarding the information we provide. These are exciting times in real estate in Kerikeri as the growth in the local tourism, retirement and horticulture industries brings more jobs and people to the area. Please remember to pop in for a coffee and a chat with any of our experienced and friendly team members anytime. Market summary The third quarter of 2018 followed similar trends to the prior half of the year with slightly lower sales volumes than 2017 across most sectors except in the higher price brackets. Total land and house sales volumes for Kerikeri are down 9% for the year to the end of September compared to the same period in 2017 but are still above average levels historically. The exception is the $800,000 plus market which is outperforming other brackets with 26% of the sales in Kerikeri in 2018 compared to 17% at the same time in 2017. After a period of sustained increases in the annualized median prices for residential homes over the past three years to a record high level of $650,000 there was a slight drop over winter which then recovered in the past two months. The market appears to be testing this record median price level and it will be interesting to see if median prices rise more over summer. Average prices for residential homes are at record levels on the back of more and higher prices being achieved in the $800,000 plus brackets. Lower numbers of bare land listings continue to keep section sales volumes to below average levels. Some developers are now offering fully serviced sections for sale in the expanded sewer area of benefit but titles will not be available until the sewer plant is up and running at the end of 2019. These timeframes are not acceptable to most buyers whose choices for bare land are now limited to a handful of subdivisions or purchasing properties with homes already built on them. We are witnessing buyers looking further afield to Kerikeri surrounds, Coopers Beach and Tokerau Beach in order to find more choice and less expensive options. Results by sector Residential section sales volumes for 2018 are 50% lower than 2017 at 21 sales compared to 40 during the same period last year due to limited stock on the market. Lifestyle bare land (i.e. land over 1ha) sales volumes are a little ahead of last year with 24 sales compared with 21 this time last year. The over $1 million housing bracket continued its strong performance with over double the 2017 volume. There have been 34 sales in 2018 compared with 16 in the same period in 2017. Sales recorded in October suggest this trend is likely to continue for the remainder of the year with steady demand from buyers particularly those moving here from other parts of the country seeking quality homes. The middle of the market ($500 - $800,000) has been steady with lower overall volumes of sales compared to 2017 (121 compared to 142) but a similar percentage of the market for the bracket (45% of all sales were in this bracket). The lower end of the housing market (under $500,000) experienced a slower winter but a resurgence of first time home buyer and investor enquiry in September and October has led to a rise in sales. Properties that had been sitting on the market for a while have sold. Commentary As previously mentioned the annualized median price for residential homes in the Kerikeri area has levelled out around $650,000 which is well above the annualized median for New Zealand of $550,000. Historically Kerikeri house prices have run above the New Zealand median with the exception of the period between 2011 and 2016 when the effects of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and an oversupply of bare land in Kerikeri brought prices in line with the rest of New Zealand. It is worth noting that this much difference to the New Zealand average has not been seen since 2008 when Kerikeri prices had run up against the New Zealand median just before the big correction after the GFC. The annualized median price for sections in Kerikeri has reached $240,000 and is now back to levels achieved just prior to the correction in 2008 after the GFC. Kerikeri’s median price is still below the New Zealand median price for sections where it had consistently tracked above it prior to the GFC. This begs the question of whether there could be more room for the prices of sections in Kerikeri to run higher to catch up with other areas of New Zealand. If the shortage of sections continues and demand for building remains steady then it is feasible that bare land prices will continue to increase. A steady inflow of new listings through spring, combined with continued interest from buyers, both locally and around the country, as we had predicted earlier in the year, is resulting in another positive year for the residential and lifestyle real estate markets in Kerikeri. Our team has been busy working on appraisals and focusing on ensuring we have the most expansive choice of properties available on the Kerikeri market for the remainder of 2018 and beyond. In September the REAL team broke our own record for sales agreements negotiated in any one month with over a whopping $12 million achieved for our vendors. We thank all our customers for their continued support and for consistently making REAL Kerikeri’s Number One choice for real estate sales. We are excited about prospects ahead for the rest of summer season and look forward to the opportunity to serve you whether buying or selling in the near future.
Aug 22, 2018
HALF YEAR REPORT 2018
We have frequent queries about the Kerikeri district real estate market and it's possible patterns or current features. There has been a steady first half to 2018 with sales volumes returning to average levels prior to the peak levels from late 2015 through 2016. There have been 171 sales in the Kerikeri and surrounding areas so far, in 2018, compared with 195 in the same period of 2017. This represents a drop in volume of 13% compared to last year and 30% from peak levels in 2016. Most of the lower volume is due to slower section sales and residential house sales as a result of lower inventory levels. The lifestyle homes sectors (over 1 ha) have helped to make up most of the difference. This information does not include the number of homes sold privately in Kerikeri’s retirement villages and country clubs, which have been expanding rapidly over recent years. Residential section sales volumes in 2018 are down by two-thirds at just 8, compared to 22 during this period last year. Bare lifestyle block sales are tracking at similar levels to last year. Purchasers considering building are having difficulty finding suitable sections and unless there is an increase in land development in Kerikeri we expect this to continue. Interestingly, bare land median prices are still below levels at the prior peak of 2008 and below national medians where historically they have been above that level. This could be an indication that there is still more room for land prices to move up. The over-$1 million housing bracket continues to be strong, nearly doubling the 2017 first-half volume with the best half on record for over a decade. There have been 22 sales in the first half of this year compared with 10 in the first half of 2017. The number of $1million-plus buyers in the Kerikeri market is greater than this when you consider the number of $million house and land packages being built across Kerikeri. There is still a strong appetite from buyers for above average quality, newer built homes and many of the retiring age buyers are happy to pay a premium to get what they want. The middle of the market ($500 - $800,000) has been slightly cooler than the same period last year with an increase in stock levels meaning vendors are competing with more properties to attract buyers. Properties priced ahead of the market are taking longer to sell and some vendors are reducing their asking prices to get more interest. The lower end of the housing market (under $500,000) has been slower due to limited stock and also fewer first-time home buyers or investors who typically seek this category of home, with just 22 sales compared with 40 by the end of June last year. Prices for first home buyers put most properties out of reach in Kerikeri and some investors are unsettled by new regulations such as an extension to 5 years of the Brightline test, ring-fencing losses on investment properties and higher deposits required. The median price for homes in 2018 for the Kerikeri area appears to have reached a peak on an annualized basis and has flattened out at around $695,000. The median price for homes is well above the Northland and national median price, closing the gap with Auckland as prices there level out. Historically, prices in Kerikeri have corrected back towards the national medians levels when they have gone this far ahead and sales volumes were declining. The key difference at this time is that inventory levels are low in certain sectors, especially of bare land and building costs are not getting any cheaper, which could help to insulate against the steep declines in the last cycle. Additionally there is still a steady stream of retiring New Zealanders moving north and enough building work ahead to keep the younger sector in the trades from moving elsewhere for work. If there are any price corrections on the horizon our view is that they are more likely to affect the middle and lower end of the market where the greatest resistance to current price levels appears to be. Inventory levels nationally and in Kerikeri are below levels in recent times, reducing the choice available for buyers. On the other hand it is an opportune time for sellers to take advantage of the limited amount of competition on the market and achieve above-average prices for their homes. We look forward to the usual seasonal pick-up in listings as Spring approaches and with a continued interest from buyers, both locally and around the country, our outlook remains very positive for the property market in Kerikeri for the remainder of 2018. As always, we are happy to discuss our reports with buyers and sellers and to meet on an organised or ad-hoc basis with you.
Apr 24, 2018
Market Update - 1st Quarter 2018
There has been a sound start to the first quarter of 2018 with 92 sales in the Kerikeri and surrounding areas, compared with 106 in the same period of 2017. Some of the reduction can be explained by the slow turnaround of LIM reports and the sale of sections awaiting titles leading to longer unconditional agreement and settlement timeframes that are now filtering through as second-quarter sales. Most of the reduction can be traced to lower section sale volumes due to limited stock. Enquiry for sections is fairly strong but often buyers are disappointed when they try to find land with a suitable building site within their budgets and are not prepared to wait for the long timeframes for building. This has meant that some section buyers are looking elsewhere in the country to move to or are buying existing homes. Residential section sales volumes in first quarter of 2018 are 70% lower than first quarter of 2017 at just 5 compared to 17 during this period last year due to limited stock on the market. Consequently lifestyle bare land (over 1ha) continues to fill some of the void with similar volumes to the same period last year averaging 3 per month. The biggest growth has been seen in the over $1 million housing bracket nearly doubling the 2017 first quarter volume with the best quarter on record for over a decade. There were 11 sales in the first quarter compared with 6 in the first quarter of 2017. There is a strong appetite from buyers for above-average quality, newer built homes. The middle of the market ($500 - $800,000) has been slightly cooler than the same period last year with an increase in stock levels meaning vendors are competing with more properties to attract buyers. Properties priced ahead of the market are taking longer to sell and some vendors are reducing asking prices to get more interest. The lower end of the housing market (under $500,000) has been slower due to limited stock and also fewer first-time home buyers or investors who typically seek this category of home. The median price for homes in first quarter of 2018 for the Kerikeri area continues to increase and is up 17% from first quarter of 2017 at $708,000 although some part of this can be attributed to the change to a higher proportion of sales in the higher brackets. The median price for homes is up 10% from the previous quarter fourth quarter of 2018 and is well above the Northland and national median price, closing the gap with Auckland as prices there level out. With the steady inflow of new listings and continued interest from buyers, both locally and around the country, our outlook remains very positive for a strong property market in Kerikeri for the remainder of 2018. * Source data from REINZ. Graphs and analysis produced by realkerikeri.co.nz Disclaimer: The information is this article is sourced from REINZ market statistics and REAL Property Kerikeri Ltd (REAL) accepts no responsibility for the accuracy of the source data. No further reproduction or distribution of this information is permitted without prior approval of REAL Property Kerikeri Ltd (REAL). By accessing these documents you agree that REAL or any employee or licensed salesperson of REAL will not be held liable for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use of the information and the material attached. Any information of special interest should be obtained by you through independent verification and consultation with the appropriate professionals and local authorities.
Feb 9, 2018
MARKET UPDATE - 2017 in review
Greetings Everyone! We hope 2018 is a great year for you. Straight into analysing the real estate realm we note QV was pointing to LVR speed limits, stricter retail bank lending criteria and uncertainty ahead of the election as the reason for 2017's overall deceleration of residential property value increases. However, we also saw periods of rapid value increases in some areas and decreasing values in others. Overall, the nationwide average shows residential property values increased +6.6% or +$41,660 during 2017 from $627,905 in December 2016 to $669,565 in December 2017, according to the latest QV House Price Index statistics. The average national value increased +3.6% over the final three months of 2017. Kerikeri’s 2017 sales volumes were down on 2016 for most months during the year, apart from February, March, June and July. Overall the sales volume was 26% below 2016 levels. The lower number of sales is attributed to fewer sales of bare land and homes under $500,000 due to low stock levels. December was particularly disappointing, down 53% from the previous year. On the upside, the buyer inquiry has been strong throughout the holiday period and, combined with an increased number of listings, bodes well for a solid summer season. Prices, however, continued their upward trend with a median house price of $637,000 for Kerikeri in 2017 up 11.5% from $571,000 in 2016. Median house prices are now up 67% from the bottom of the market in 2012. The median sales price across New Zealand in December 2017 for all residential property was $550,000 and for all areas excluding Auckland it was $450,000. The average sales price for houses in Kerikeri in 2017 was $712,000, up 15% from $621,000 in 2016. Sales volumes for residential sections under 1ha. dropped from 83 in 2016 to 45 in 2017, mostly because of the lack of available stock for sale. The new development of sections has been slow, resulting in diminished stock and higher prices achieved. The median sales price for residential sections was $239,000 in 2017, up 31% from $182,000 in 2016 and double the median price at the bottom of the market in 2012. The median price achieved in the last quarter of 2017 was $270,000. The average time to sell in Northland is 44 days. This is still lower than the 10 year average of 55 days. Have a great year. This is a great time for the enquirer, buyer or seller to call in and discuss any relevant real estate matters with us. And remember, the coffee is on us! [siteloft_form id=32 add-background="false"]
Dec 11, 2017
Growing Pains
We don’t know if you’ve noticed, but Kerikeri and Waipapa are really busy!!! It seems that what we used to call ‘the Christmas holiday rush’ during December and January now starts from Labour Weekend and really doesn’t slow down until May or June! This can be attributed mainly to the growth that Kerikeri is experiencing, particularly in the retirement sector, as evidenced by some very successful retirement developments such as Heritage Retirement Villas, Quail Ridge, Oakridge, and Orchard Estate. The Auckland area remains our main feeder market, together with a good percentage of overseas buyers who are mainly returning Kiwis. The result of this growth has put pressure on all of our infrastructure – roads, long traffic queues, parking. It’s a marvel that our future planners implemented Kerikeri’s ‘temporary’ one-way system, which has been in existence now for far longer than what one would consider temporary or acceptable. Not to mention that schools are at full capacity and there is a real lack of tradesmen, resulting in long delays for new builds. Is it not time that the FNDC fronted up with the true population figures within the Kerikeri High School zone? To say that Kerikeri has a population of 6,000–7,000 is simply not true. It is time to take stock, address the issues as stated and make a plan to get things happening in a positive working relationship with our elected officials. As we all know at REAL, working together achieves more than competing against one another. Changing tack, from a real estate perspective we note that sales have been strong throughout 2017. There has been a growth in the number of higher-end homes selling and, interestingly, the lower-end of the market ($400,000 - $550,000) has slowed down slightly. This may be attributed directly to the LVR restrictions put in place by the Reserve Bank although there has been news that these restrictions will be eased in the new year which will help those who are currently struggling to save a deposit under the current regime. We predict business as usual in the new year and are excited about the prospects and changes that are happening in our growing town. We just need to be proactive not reactive and make the most of people wanting to live and invest in our community. Merry Christmas everyone! May the New Year bring you all happiness and prosperity. If our door is open we are ready to talk! Pete, Steve and the REAL Team. [siteloft_form id=32 add-background="false"]
Jun 28, 2017
MARKET UPDATE - 2016 YTD and 2017 YTD Kerikeri Sales Comparison
Sales volumes down, prices up on lack of stock The latest property sales stats from REINZ for the Kerikeri area through May 31st show a similar number of sales for homes selling for over $500,000 as compared to the same period last year. However, it is a different story in other categories with a decline in the number of sales of homes under $500,000 and bare land. While demand for good buildable land and cheaper housing remains steady, prices have risen around Kerikeri reducing the number of homes available for sale under $500,000 and sections under $250,000. Consequently, total sales volumes are down 28% on the same period last year. The median price for sections reached a record 10 year high level of $253,000 up 44% from $176,000 for the period through May in 2016. The median price for homes also reached a record level of $602,000 up 13% from $535,000 for the period through May in 2016. As a comparison, the national median house price for 2017 through May is $540,000. The average price for a home around Kerikeri in 2017 is $703,500 up 20% from $586,500 through May in 2016 driven by an increase in the proportion of sales in the higher brackets. While on the surface these figures paint a fairly positive picture of the market for people selling there are definite signals that there is resistance on behalf of a growing number of buyers to paying these higher prices. These figures are a reflection of year on year results and past activity that can mask what is happening with prices being achieved in the current market. In recent months, a number of vendors have had to reduce prices to achieve a sale particularly as Auckland buyers are achieving less for their sales. At certain levels, price sensitive buyers either stay put or start to look for more affordable options in other places usually resulting in a leveling of the market as demand drops. Our expert sales team takes all of these factors into consideration to price and achieve the best result for our customers. Please don’t hesitate to contact us for a free, no strings attached appraisal if you want to find out where your property sits.