Is now a good time to buy or sell? Market Update (Through October 2022)
October market update
REINZ statistics are out for October 2022, so our in-house analyst has been busy producing the latest market data for your perusal. We are moving into the November sales period and it is coming into the time of year when the weather is warming up and the birds are singing their hearts out in the mornings. It is also the time of year when our outdoor festivals are held. The Kerikeri Street party was well attended this year and the town showed off our local foods, wines, and community spirit. As December approaches, we look forward to the community events organized to celebrate Xmas, not least of which is the 8 metre Xmas tree that will be displayed in the Domain from the 3rd of December.
Our visitor numbers will swell and we trust that some will choose to make Kerikeri their home now or sometime in the future.
Good time to sell or buy?
This is a question we are often asked and it is an important question. There is no doubt that our market is changing and we are finally following the national trend. It is taking longer to sell and median house prices have dropped. Every market represents its own opportunities, inflationary pressures are driving new build prices up, increasing stock levels and higher interest rates are creating a price correction for existing stock.
This combination creates opportunities to purchase the property you have been waiting for. There is less competition in the market, you have more choice and ultimately values will correct again when demand exceeds supply over the coming years.
But what about if you are selling and must buy again? The beauty about selling and buying in the same market, is that, although you may accept a lower price for your own home, the property you purchase will also be obtainable at a lower price. The market becoming almost irrelevant.
The average number of days to sell a property in Kerikeri has been around 60 days over the past 10 years. We are now experiencing this again; listings are increasing but still at the lower end of what we are used to. While the media are predicting doom and gloom, we merely see the market returning to “Normal”. The reality is that the median house prices are still up 48% from three years ago, inquiry is still good, sales are being made every day, good attendance to our open homes and we are meeting lots of people who would love to live in our beautiful town and experience the laid back lifestyle Northland has to offer.
First Home Buyers!
This is a great time for first home buyers, if you have good job security, saved a decent amount for a deposit, are not afraid to get your hands dirty and add some value. You can wait for your equity to grow, or you can work hard and create your own equity. We have seen young couples doing homes up and with a minimal capital amount but with a massive personal effort turning a rock into a diamond. The greatest mistake you can make is to try and start where your parents left off. There is an old saying “The harder I work, the luckier I get”. (P.S be nice to your parents they might help you out!)
If you want to find out more about how our unique, high-performance system can help you achieve your property goals please give us a call or pop into our office anytime. We would be glad to show you around and make you a coffee while you are here.
Please Note:
*Greater Kerikeri approximated the Kerikeri High School enrolment zone and includes Waipapa, Doves Bay Peninsula, Inlet Road Peninsula, Kapiro, Waimate North Road and branch roads, Wiroa Rd and branch roads, Pungaere Rd and branch roads, Puketotara Rd and branch roads, Waipapa West Road and branch roads, Takou Bay.
**We use quarterly moving averages as these mitigate some of the wild monthly variation that occurs when reporting monthly medians on smaller number of sales.
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Apr 9, 2024
Best Time To Buy
More houses for sale, the prospect of lower interest rates, and the likelihood of improved capital gain make this the optimal time to buy a home in Kerikeri. The Kerikeri market is experiencing a unique moment in time right now. Prices have settled into their new normal, lots of new stock is coming to the market and increased buyer activity is resulting in multi-offers. Some economists are suggesting that interest rates will start to decrease sooner than expected and predicting house prices to increase over the course of 2024. I have a view that the Reserve Bank has over-crunched the economy and will play catch-up policy easing from late this year. So, if I were borrowing at the moment, I would probably take a mix of 6 and 12 month rates. “Tony Alexander Economist. For buyers, this means that for the first time in years it will likely get easier to service a new mortgage over time rather than harder. This combined with expected capital gains, means now is a great time to buy. More stock means more competition for vendors. Presentation and pricing are more important now than ever. The ones that do, are likely to see a successful marketing campaign with possible multiple offers that will result in the best possible price in the current market. We expect the current market conditions to remain steady while the economy is correcting itself. First home buyers are back and this is a welcoming sign for a healthy property market. There is always a reason why someone wants to either move up or downsize. In a steady market you will find that the gap between what you are buying and what you are selling isn’t as huge. It doesn’t matter where you are, good houses always seem to find buyers, no matter what’s happening in the market. Right now is a sweet spot for buying. If you want to find out more about how our unique, high-performance system can help you achieve your property goals please give us a call or pop into our office anytime. We would be glad to show you around and make you a coffee while you are here.
Mar 7, 2024
Market Update: February 2024
A busy start to the year! It has been a surprising start to the year for us, with massive numbers of appraisals and new listings, a slow but steady increase in buyer enquiry and a fair amount of time advising and reassuring vendors that things will get back on track. We have recorded 16 conditional sales in February but more than half of these rely on other sales chains to complete. 75% of these are under $1million. Looking back REINZ reported 12 unconditional sales for January compared with 14 in December. This is a result of the typical lower levels of buyer activity in December leading up to the Xmas period. The outlook for February at the time of writing this report looks similar to January. Record numbers of new listings and appraisals On the reverse side, the number of appraisals and new listings coming onto the market so far this year has broken all records. The paralysis caused by the uncertainty leading up to the election, the delays with forming a government and then Xmas has led to a herd of sellers coming to the market at once. Consequently, inventories have shot up with latest numbers approaching 400 listings on TradeMe up from 340 just a few months ago. This is good news for buyers and sellers. It provides more choice for buyers than they had previously except in the lower price brackets where inventory is still slim. In time, it stimulates more activity across the whole market. More inventory and fewer buyers are shifting the higher price brackets firmly into the buyer’s market category. Inventories in the over $1million bracket would take over 2 years to clear at current sales volumes and motivated vendors with deadlines are seeing the writing on the wall and reducing asking prices to meet the market. Price outlook Our feeder markets are showing signs of an upswing with Auckland prices on the rise although sales volumes are still relatively low and 70% of auctions are being passed in. Most economists are predicting that the higher interest rate levels will continue to hold the New Zealand property market at bay for at least the next 6 months of 2024. Our observations are that most of our buyers are planning to make a sideways move to Kerikeri from another area or wish to downsize. Only a few are looking to upsize. This is a sign of our economic times in New Zealand. At our current price level, even people from many Auckland suburbs find it hard to move here and release equity to live on as they have been able to in the past. Until the price differential widens again (either increases in our feeder markets or further decreases here) then some people may choose to move to more affordable parts of the country. With the majority of buyers looking to downsize, the higher demand is for lower priced properties resulting in lower inventories and leaving high inventories in the higher brackets where demand is lower. First time homebuyers remain mostly non-existent which ties to our higher than NZ average prices, lower than average wages and a challenging lending environment. Investors appear to be sitting on the fence although a few seasoned, cashed up investors are starting to play their cards as opportunities present themselves. As reported in December, much of our sales activity depends on stimulus from Auckland and other centres. Usually a major shift in these markets takes 3 to 6 months to impact on ours. We watch with interest as these markets change over coming months.