Spring - September 2022
September Market Update:
The fourth quarter of 2022 is now here. Where did the year go? Our team is in full swing with the usual rush of Spring listings albeit wet weather which has put a bit of a damper on photos and launches. This is an active time of year with a series of events leading into Xmas including the reopening of Kainui Road’s Saturday concerts in the vineyard; the half marathon and Kerikeri Street party; and various Xmas events organized by Our Kerikeri.
Some serious roadworks are happening in late October through November around the Packhouse markets west of Maraenui Drive. This will mean no exit from town to the State Highway on Kerikeri Road. The suggested route is to head out on Waipapa Rd to get to the State Highway and now for news on the Kerikeri property market.
How is the Greater Kerikeri Market?
The same story continues for a further month with median house prices still remaining strong in Kerikeri despite further drops in other parts of Northland and most parts of the rest of the country.
The question is will this continue or is this a lag on trends in other markets around the country. The truth is we still don’t really know. The number of homes for sale, or inventory, has increased only slightly in the past few months. This suggests properties are turning over at a rate not dissimilar to the rate they are coming onto the market. However, we typically get a Spring rush of new listings over the next few months which could create more competition between vendors. We have been encouraging our clients to “beat the rush” if they have plans to move.
The Sales Data:
The median house sales price (on a quarterly moving average basis**) increased 13.5% from September 2021 compared with a drop of 7.6% for the same period in the Auckland region and a drop of 1.2% for all New Zealand. Kerikeri median prices are level with last month at a record level of $1,050,000 versus a 15.5% drop in the Auckland region and a drop of 10.4% for all New Zealand. Kerikeri median prices are the closest to Auckland median prices in many years and are up 50% from 3 years prior. The median days to sell is at around 50 days which is slightly better than our average level for the last 10 years.
The volume of bare land sales is still much lower than prior years.
Only one section sold in September, being a 3045m2 riverfront lot for $650,000.
There were 14 less sales recorded in September 2022 than in August 2021. 3 sales were between $1.5million and $2 million. This brought the volume of total property sold this year through September 31st to 30% down from the same period in 2021. This is slightly worse than the 29% lower comparison of year-on-year sales levels last month.
Enquiry Levels:
This month saw enquiry levels and viewings at open homes drop a little, possibly with bad weather and holidays taking attention away from buying and selling homes. Buyers tend to be waiting until their homes are selling before making their moves. Our typical feeder markets, Wellington, and Auckland, continue to show even lower median prices and lower sales volume.
Our office recorded another 5 sales in September and had 28% of the total residential sales recorded in Greater Kerikeri. Through collaboration, sharing workloads and helping each other, we maintained our share of the residential sales recorded in Kerikeri this year to 35%. This continues our unbeaten record of producing the highest number of residential sales in Kerikeri, year in and year out, for nearly 20 years.
If you want to find out more about how our unique, high-performance system can help you achieve your property goals please give us a call or pop into our office anytime. We would be glad to show you around and make you a coffee while you are here.
Please Note:
*Greater Kerikeri approximated the Kerikeri High School enrolment zone and includes Waipapa, Doves Bay Peninsula, Inlet Road Peninsula, Kapiro, Waimate North Road and branch roads, Wiroa Rd and branch roads, Pungaere Rd and branch roads, Puketotara Rd and branch roads, Waipapa West Road and branch roads, Takau Bay.
**We use quarterly moving averages as these mitigate some of the wild monthly variation that occurs when reporting monthly medians on smaller number of sales.
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Apr 9, 2024
Best Time To Buy
More houses for sale, the prospect of lower interest rates, and the likelihood of improved capital gain make this the optimal time to buy a home in Kerikeri. The Kerikeri market is experiencing a unique moment in time right now. Prices have settled into their new normal, lots of new stock is coming to the market and increased buyer activity is resulting in multi-offers. Some economists are suggesting that interest rates will start to decrease sooner than expected and predicting house prices to increase over the course of 2024. I have a view that the Reserve Bank has over-crunched the economy and will play catch-up policy easing from late this year. So, if I were borrowing at the moment, I would probably take a mix of 6 and 12 month rates. “Tony Alexander Economist. For buyers, this means that for the first time in years it will likely get easier to service a new mortgage over time rather than harder. This combined with expected capital gains, means now is a great time to buy. More stock means more competition for vendors. Presentation and pricing are more important now than ever. The ones that do, are likely to see a successful marketing campaign with possible multiple offers that will result in the best possible price in the current market. We expect the current market conditions to remain steady while the economy is correcting itself. First home buyers are back and this is a welcoming sign for a healthy property market. There is always a reason why someone wants to either move up or downsize. In a steady market you will find that the gap between what you are buying and what you are selling isn’t as huge. It doesn’t matter where you are, good houses always seem to find buyers, no matter what’s happening in the market. Right now is a sweet spot for buying. If you want to find out more about how our unique, high-performance system can help you achieve your property goals please give us a call or pop into our office anytime. We would be glad to show you around and make you a coffee while you are here.
Mar 7, 2024
Market Update: February 2024
A busy start to the year! It has been a surprising start to the year for us, with massive numbers of appraisals and new listings, a slow but steady increase in buyer enquiry and a fair amount of time advising and reassuring vendors that things will get back on track. We have recorded 16 conditional sales in February but more than half of these rely on other sales chains to complete. 75% of these are under $1million. Looking back REINZ reported 12 unconditional sales for January compared with 14 in December. This is a result of the typical lower levels of buyer activity in December leading up to the Xmas period. The outlook for February at the time of writing this report looks similar to January. Record numbers of new listings and appraisals On the reverse side, the number of appraisals and new listings coming onto the market so far this year has broken all records. The paralysis caused by the uncertainty leading up to the election, the delays with forming a government and then Xmas has led to a herd of sellers coming to the market at once. Consequently, inventories have shot up with latest numbers approaching 400 listings on TradeMe up from 340 just a few months ago. This is good news for buyers and sellers. It provides more choice for buyers than they had previously except in the lower price brackets where inventory is still slim. In time, it stimulates more activity across the whole market. More inventory and fewer buyers are shifting the higher price brackets firmly into the buyer’s market category. Inventories in the over $1million bracket would take over 2 years to clear at current sales volumes and motivated vendors with deadlines are seeing the writing on the wall and reducing asking prices to meet the market. Price outlook Our feeder markets are showing signs of an upswing with Auckland prices on the rise although sales volumes are still relatively low and 70% of auctions are being passed in. Most economists are predicting that the higher interest rate levels will continue to hold the New Zealand property market at bay for at least the next 6 months of 2024. Our observations are that most of our buyers are planning to make a sideways move to Kerikeri from another area or wish to downsize. Only a few are looking to upsize. This is a sign of our economic times in New Zealand. At our current price level, even people from many Auckland suburbs find it hard to move here and release equity to live on as they have been able to in the past. Until the price differential widens again (either increases in our feeder markets or further decreases here) then some people may choose to move to more affordable parts of the country. With the majority of buyers looking to downsize, the higher demand is for lower priced properties resulting in lower inventories and leaving high inventories in the higher brackets where demand is lower. First time homebuyers remain mostly non-existent which ties to our higher than NZ average prices, lower than average wages and a challenging lending environment. Investors appear to be sitting on the fence although a few seasoned, cashed up investors are starting to play their cards as opportunities present themselves. As reported in December, much of our sales activity depends on stimulus from Auckland and other centres. Usually a major shift in these markets takes 3 to 6 months to impact on ours. We watch with interest as these markets change over coming months.